Archive for November 2011

ASEAN Cooperation on Energy Security and the Philippines (2009-2015)

Locating the Philippines in the ASEAN’s Regional Coherence and Prospects for Attaining Energy Security

Aaron G. Laylo

To begin with, I would like to give a brief background on some empirical observations that called my attention for this study. By doing this, the reader can have an overview or preliminary outlook of the energy situation in the Philippines and the ASEAN in general. As of July-September 2011, world oil prices have inconsistent movement, moving up and down amid worries of improving demand, supply shortage from Libya, and the continued Euro Zone debt crisis.^[i] Meanwhile in the Philippines, with the latest hike, the average pump prices in Metro Manila climbed to as follows: gasoline (unleaded), P55 per liter; diesel, P45 per liter and kerosene, P55 per liter.^[ii] These prices, of course, may change in just a matter of days due to various considerations (world market prices, oil companies’ adjustments and the government’s regulation). But from these facts, one can assume and even ascertain that oil prices in the world market have direct impact on the oil-dependent domestic markets which would eventually affect economies. The Philippines, being an oil-dependent country has to manage varying skyrocketing of oil prices and search for alternative and sustainable sources of energy in order to fuel its vulnerable economy. Moreover, the Philippines’ (politico-economic) standing in the Southeast Asian region seems ambiguous and hazy due to its up-and-down economic performance in the last two decades.^[iii] It is widely perceived by economists and technocrats alike that energy is closely linked to the economic dynamism of a certain country or region. Alarming as it may seem, the Philippines cannot be completely considered an exemption; for the very region where it is located also experienced energy security problems, and can still be considered vulnerable to energy demand instabilities.

Although much of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have proven reserves of oil and natural gas (the primary energy source fueling the region’s industries) these resources are minimal and recent discoveries have so far failed to meet the populations’ consumption growth since 2008, especially oil (please see TABLE 1) and high demand in the[MR 21]  region. Despite the relative scarcity (compared to oil-rich regions of West Asia, Africa, and America) ASEAN countries have nonetheless abundant and diverse reserves of other energy sources such as natural gas, coal, hydrothermal, geothermal, and biofuels (please see Figure 1). For instance, the region as a whole holds close to 4% of total world proven natural gas reserves^[iv] with Indonesia and Malaysia having the most significant reserves. As a result, ASEAN has become the fourth largest liquid natural gas (LNG) producer.  A major difficulty though is that these reserves tend to be located far away from the major centers of economic activity thus requiring substantial investment in infrastructure and transportation.^[v] Another problem is that only a few countries are genuinely self-sufficient and have developed facilities. For instance, access to modern energy is limited in Myanmar and Cambodia, but is at 100 percent in Singapore.^[vi]

Going back and zooming in on the case of the Philippines, are there reasons to be alarmed? How secure is the Philippines provided its ratio of energy reserves-production and supply-demand? Although proven natural gas reserves (please see TABLE 2) may be sufficient for the next 20 years since the operation of the Malampaya natural gas fields off Palawan island; and hydrothermal and geothermal energies have been tapped, as well as biofuels, there is still a need for exploring other alternatives in order to fully secure the energy concerns in the country. With the exception of the Malampaya project (considered as one of the most-foreign-invested project in the Philippines), potentials of other sources are yet to be fully developed. And these projects would also require significant amounts of investment in infrastructure and transportation. If these potentials would be transformed to realizations, energy supply in the country may be somehow more sufficient, and oil dependence may be lessened. This, if ever developed, can be a big boost to the economy. This can also sustain the demand for energy supply and consumption in the Philippines and ease the ease the dependence on petroleum importation especially oil (please see TABLE 3). In the meantime, energy sufficiency and management remain as challenges for the Philippine government in partnership with the private sector.

Now, let me cite a few relevant theories and concepts that can provide the reader an initial vista of the recent formal explanations that attempt to establish the phenomenon of regional cooperation, and other concepts that may be considered crucial in the analysis of energy concerns. The organization’s 40 years (established in 1967)^[vii], have proven its progress as a regional economic and socio-cultural bloc that has grown into a core forum organization (tackling security, political, economic, socio-cultural issues) in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific regions. However, it is useful to remind ourselves that Asian regionalism as a distinctive field of study is remarkably new, and that until recently, it had remained largely atheoretical. Some Asian authors like Komori (2007) and Yoshimatsu (2006) argue that regionalization studies, those underpinned by institutionalist assumptions have made a number of important contributions to the study of Asian regional institutions.^[viii] Apparently, international relations scholars would put regional definitions within the context of some IR approaches. For instance, rationalist thinkers view regional integration, or cooperation, as a process of pursuing mutual interests of the member states. They have also convincingly argued that “cooperation” is possible and that rational and self-interested actors can achieve stable and enduring cooperation and overcome collective action dilemmas (Keohane 1984).^[1] Constructivist thinkers, on the other hand, view regionalism quite differently. Acharya (2009) examined the socializing effect of Asian regional institutions, using the theoretical and conceptual prism of constructivist approaches to international relations. Dirlik (1992) described the “Asia-Pacific idea” as somewhat a representation than reality: an artificial construct that rationalizes elite interests.^[ix] Some political scientists would categorize the formation and development of the ASEAN under the English School, (Quayle, undated) which is akin to constructivism and one that also recognizes the formation of international societies sharing norms and practices.

Like, regionalism and institutionalism, cooperation as a concept in international studies only emerged in the twentieth century, especially during the post-war years (1950s-1980s), while energy security as a perspective has only become prominent in the 1970s, and especially in the 1990s when it was related to human security and closely linked to environmental sustainability. Cooperation has become a nebulous, vague, and elusive concept, challenging scholars to allot more attention in exploring what motivates states to cooperate, or in the first place, why do they need to cooperate? Energy security, on the other hand, is placed in the realm of the non-traditional security perspective. Along with food security, energy security may be considered an emergent concern in most states primarily because of the increasingly important role that they play in the wider economic security of a state. In the literature review part of this proposal, ASEAN energy security issues were also succinctly discussed in the following articles: The Asian Energy Predicament (Manning (2000), Reassessing Energy Security and the Trans-ASEAN Natural Gas Pipeline Network in Southeast Asia (Sovacool’s, 2009), and the ASEAN factsheet’s Ensuring Energy Security in the ASEAN (2008 and 2009) by the Public Affairs Office of the ASEAN Secretariat.  Much of the related theories, approaches, concepts, and perspectives will be further detailed in the paper’s review of related literature.

Regionalism, institutionalism, cooperation, and energy security are indeed prominent concepts in the study of international relations in recent times, although as stated earlier, these areas remain vast seas of inquiry yet to be explored farther. An examination of these concepts and application to the case of the ASEAN might be an interesting study yet a very challenging one. Therefore, this research would like to fill in the gaps in the study of ASEAN institutionalism and energy issues; research gaps include questions that look into what constitutes ASEAN cooperation on energy security, and how economic integration leads to energy security. It is usually assumed that there is a link between the two but how they are directly related remains an area to be explored. Another significant concern that I wish to raise in this paper is the fact that although the Philippines has diverse energy resources, it has however relatively less reserves of conventional energy supplies such as oil and natural gas compared to neighboring states Indonesia and Malaysia. If this is the case, a vital concern that should be addressed here is to search for the most plausible response of the Philippine government and its energy sector to ease oil supply dependence and sufficiently meet the increasing demands.

This research will begin with an overview of ASEAN regional cooperation on energy as explained in theories, concepts, and perspectives, look into the region’s energy conditions, and find areas for cooperation especially through economic integration. After laying the general context, this research will eventually locate the Philippines’ in the whole picture. In sum, the foci of this research proposal will be on the ASEAN Cooperation on Energy Security and on the Philippines’ involvement in the regional frameworks that exemplify serious efforts to respond to ASEAN challenges in attaining energy security.

Critique paper of Jon Elster’s The Nature and Scope of Rational Choice Explanation

Aaron Laylo

Rational choice is regarded as an important approach in political science theories and methods. For researchers whose aim is to understand and eventually explain the behavior of actors insofar as interests (and gains) are concerned, this approach seems to be most pertinent choice. Jon Elster’s article, though complex and technical in form and content due to some mathematical equations presented, gives the reader a relatively sufficient overview of the nature and scope of rational choice explanation. Here, he first presented two questions from and around which the whole article evolves:

a. how do rational-choice explanations explain?

b. what are the limits and limitations?

And these two questions were discussed in three parts:

a. a general category of intentional explanation of how actors behave

b. components needed to generate rational-choice explanation; and

c. power of rational choice theory to yield unique deductions.

I wish to make the author’s complex and highly technical article easier to understand by dividing seven main points (some I borrowed from others, and a few based on reading analysis) into three clusters, as initially designed by Elster. In my understanding of the article, it appears that four elements may be considered important when analyzing rational-choice explanations: desire, cognition, evidence, and action. Elster says that the rational action is “the best way of satisfying agent’s desires, given the best believes he could form, relative to the optimum amount of evidence”. Now, let me give a more specific and personal example to expound it.

            When I was in my last years in college, I began to dream of joining the foreign service (desire). But my foundational knowledge on diplomacy and analysis of international affairs may not be enough so I decided to enroll in the Master in International Studies program at the UP. I learned about theories (cognition), and did a lot of research, analysis, and participated in various conferences (evidence), in order to enrich my knowledge on the nitty-gritties of the career that I desire to pursue. I keep on doing my best to do well in my studies (action) and when I receive the go-signal, I will enter the foreign service.

The example stated above shows the four essential components that comprise the structure of rational-choice explanation. In Elster’s article, he expanded these four (these components were not discussed one by one in his article), into many points through mathematical equations and models yet to make it more organized, he clustered them into three: intentionality, rationality, and optimality.

Intentionality. According to Elster, “to explain a piece of behavior intentionally is to show that it derives from an intention of the individual.”[1] Here, I present three statements and brief explanation based on the example I gave above. These can more or less provide an interpretation of what the author meant by intentionality.

1.) Given an actor’s beliefs (C), some behavior (B) is the best way to achieve his/ her desire (D). Clearly, beliefs affect a person’s behavior, and this behavior therefore affects how he takes action to achieve his desires. In the example, my belief that I will become a diplomat one day is expressed by how I “behave” as a student – study, participate, and learn more. This “scholarly” behavior exemplifies my actions to achieve my dream (desire). Another condition would be that:

2.) the actor’s beliefs (C) and desires (D) cause his behavior (B). Using the example again, we assume that my belief that I will be a diplomat and my desire to become to diplomat both cause my behavior as a graduate student now.

And lastly, another equation proposed that 3.) the beliefs (C) and causal desires (D) cause one’s behavior (B) due to his personal reasons. This is not far from the previous case. My belief of becoming a diplomat and the desire to become a diplomat cause me to keep on studying well. I never give up on trying to understand unfamiliar concepts and challenging lessons. I have to do these and continue to hold on to my dream because I have good reasons (R) to pursue it.

Briefly, to apply these models on the case of states as actors, let me provide this short example: The Philippines believe that the Kalayaan Group of Islands are part of the archipelago, a territory of the country (C). Having made this clear, the country’s behavior (quite realist) towards China (B) is what the government believes (as one of the) best ways to uphold and (D) its territorial claim and eventually take complete and undisputed possession of the Kalayaan.

Another model would show that the Philippines’ belief (that Kalayaan belongs to the Filipinos) (B) and the desire to uphold this claim and take possession of the islands (D) cause the country to buy “warships” from the US and modernize its military to for “image.”

Lastly, we still follow the previous condition but we add reasons (r) to why the Philippines continues to display “military capabilities” – for China not to belittle it. Honestly, I find it quite pathetic for the Philippines but national interest should be upheld no matter what, and regardless of what stronger states think of us.

Rationality. Rational-choice explanation goes beyond intentionality in several respects.  According to Elster,

a.) the set of beliefs C is internally consistent, and

b.) the set of desires D is internally consistent.

To make this simpler, we just say: 4.) beliefs and desires must be consistent. Indeed, there is no easier way to attain one’s desire except through a constant belief and desire that can fuel one’s intention to realize and attain his goal. But definitely, in order to make this possible, an important premise to this would be: 5.) beliefs must be well-grounded – inductively justified by providing evidence. According to Elster, the analysis of rational belief then closely parallels that of intentional action. Again, there are three conditions to be satisfied:

a.) the belief must be best relief, given the available evidence.

b.) the belief must be caused by the available evidence.

c.) the evidence must cause the relief “in the right way.”

Nonetheless, 6.) as Davidson (quoted in Elster’s) argues, there might always be faulty causal wiring between desire and action. He implies that the weaker reason may win out because it blocks the stronger ones from operating; or the stronger reasons might lose because they cause another behavior than that for which they are reasons. In either case, condition x fails to hold for the full set of desires. The action is intentional, but irrational.[2] Simply put, one may desire something; but because of weak reasons, his behavior tends to favor that something that he does not really wants. Indeed, the action is intentional, but irrational.

Optimality. Lastly, in the article, Elster wanted to consider some difficulties with (the view that the best can always be achieved) when applied to the social sciences. In economics and political science, and in international relations, actors would always want the best to benefit them, although they also recognize the fact that they cannot always get what they want. Therefore, they find other options. This is the difficulty of rational-choice explanation – to examine and eventually choose the best option – the optimal choice. In sum, (7) the concept of rationality implies that we always have options but it is for us to decide well in order to gain optimal results.

*Elster says that the rational action is “the best way of satisfying agent’s desires, given the best believes he could form, relative to the optimum amount of evidence”.

Critique paper on Realism

THE ENDURING RELEVANCE OF THE REALIST TRADITION (STEPHEN WALT)

Aaron Laylo

Realism’s position in the discipline/ field of international relations has been regarded important, prominent, and relevant. As in the title of Walt’s comprehensive article, the relevance of the realist tradition endures from the time of the Greek city-states to the era of modern nation-states. Stephen Walt’s article gives the reader a broad vista of the evolution and variations of realism – the primary position of various realist typologies, the focus of the theory, and the main arguments surrounding and linked to realism. In this short critique paper, I will present my seven (7) observations in the article – 4 commendable insights as well as 3 other areas that might seem too complex for readers, or lacking a few important components.

A Day in the Life of Aaroboy

(September 20, 2011)

Fives years ago, I wrote an award-winning (but it’s a recognition, a blessing from God, so why not share about it) essay entitled “Balanse sa Lipunan: Isang Tanaw sa Sama-samang Pag-unlad at Pagkakapantay-pantay.” The essay’s title implies that it is about (the need for) social equality and equitability to achieve development and sustainable progress. The first paragraph runs, “Tuwing ako’y napapadaan sa mga lugar na may matataas na gusali at magagandang tanggapan tulad ng sa Makati o sa Ortigas, aking nasasabi sa sarili, “Umuunlad na nga ang Pilipinas, umaahon na ang bansa.”

I had a great time yesterdey. Going back to special places brings back good memories. And in this places, we often get to reflect on things that may seem ordinary for some, special for others, but priceless to someone who had undergone those things. Now, looking back at “some of these things” reminds me of a past, long gone, but whose related stories linger and continue to touch me.

So here’s my lone-Aaroboy adventure yesterday, on a sunny-windy-and-mild day. As usual, when I wake up late, I often feel lethargic, lacking energy to go with the day. But I had to fight any lassitude, any indolent attitude of the mind and body in order to accomplish things and simply be productive. God hates laziness.

So alright! Thank God it was not super hot when I left the house. Even I could already drive, I wouldn’t bring the car just just so I could feel that old routine I used to do every single day for almost a year in 2007. (Anyway, even now, I don’t know how to drive, haha). So yeah, I got to walk on the noisy and very busy streets of downtown Nova, about 2 kilometers from where we live. Nice to have immersed myself again, though twas really challenging, and always on guard of my wallet. Good thing I didn’t bring any bag which would only add weight as I travel. So ok, I was supposed to ride an ordinary bus to my destination, just to feel the discomfort of heat and pollution when commuting in the metro. But of course, I have to be more practical now – and consider the fact that there are aircon busses in Novaliches unlike 4 years ago. So there, I sat very comfortably and read a few pages of a book on research methods (haha, geek I know, I’d rather spend my time wisely). It took an hour before we reached the corner of EDSA-Annapolis. Praise God it was not very hot. So even if there are already jeeps that will bring you to the OB area (drop-off point, if I’m not mistaken), I chose to walk down this 500m long Annapolis – passing through chick condos and restaurants adjacent or near modest carinderias catering to manong drivers and yayas waiting for their bosses or alagas. Wow, the same old Annapolis where I would walk, stop at 7-11 or Mini-stop to buy siopao or stuff, or stop at National Bookstore which by the way has been transferred to that building beside OB Montessori. Burger Machine where I used to eat often is gone. And OB is being renovated. So I reached Gloria Maris and Vira Mall. I dropped by Goodwill Bookstore and bought a bargain book. Went to the CR, a part of my routine, to wash my face and tell my reflection in the mirror “God is good to you, Aaron” and begin with my part-time work as a tutor. In between hours, I would stroll through the mall and window-shop at Greenhills. Those were the days, I was still a fresh grad. So no pressure yet, well… kinda. Of course, I was still adjusting then – my first year as a graduate student. I could’ve begun teaching at UPIS but I believe God put me there first – in Greenhills as a tutor to see that world of contrasts, of reality, and of learnings….

Part 2

So there, I strolled along the narrow stolls inside Greenhills. Though this place and its circuits should’ve been familiar to me, I still get a bit lost. Found my way out and I reached Theater Mall which used to be Music Museum. Walked… and finally found Booksale, though I couldn’t find a good title, so I left to eat at KFC. It was already past 2 I guess so I decided to leave for Galleria. There was this excitement in me to be feeling that feeling again, riding the jeep to Galleria from Greenhills. It may be ordinary for some, but it was kinda special to me. I saw they’re already preparing Christmas decors on the roof of GH, for the annual Christmas show.

I rode a jeep to POEA, and walked to Galleria. Being the booklover guy, the first place where I dropped by was National Bookstore. Searched for bargain books, but I didn’t like any titles. So I left again… strolling…. window-shopping and reminiscing, just reminiscing the old days. The old Cinnabon stoll is still there… I left the Galleria using the exit near TGIF, where I used to always pass by to and from Ortigas and GH. It was very windy… Walked to Emerald, passing by GCF and that small Ortigas Park. I just stared at the Emerald where I taught for almost 5 months, I guess. Then I went back to Ortigas mini-park and sat on the bench. Stayed there for almost 20 minutes, reminiscing the old days, reflecting on why God wanted me to experience all those things, and thanking God for all those experiences – that me strive to do more, and excel. To dream more! I left with a happy heart. Going to Mega Mall, I passed by this nice building. God whispered to me, “Mararanasan mo rin yan. At higit pa diyan ang ibibigay Ko sa’yo.” Wow. I do not lose hope. His time for my life’s adventure continues to become more exciting. Megamall, searched for Powerbooks and Booksale again. Hehehe… and when i got tired and hungry, went to the Food Court and ordered at Bodhi. While eating, I noticed peeps selling taho, salad and stuff…. I realized how blessed I am. There I was. Eating plenty meal – 2 viands, double rice, and ice tea at an affordable price, and just relaxing. And there they were, selling stuff at the food court. Yeah, I know that these are noble jobs but how much do they get for that job? I feel very blessed. Charged again, I decided to leave for Rustan’s. I saw aircon busses as if they’re inviting me to ride already and go home but I opted to stay and explore Rustan’s. I was kinda curious. Honestly, i can’t remember if I had been there when I was young. I don’t think so. And if I had naman, I must be very young, too young not to remember tiny details. I didn’t even know where the entrance was. Hehehe..

So there, wow. I reached Shangri-la Plaza. Funny I had been…… for so long a time, I thought Rustan’s is a mall for the rich and famous only. And when I got in, I proved to myself that it really is not exclusive for the rich. Ordinary folks stroll through this so called high class mall. And well, there are boutique shops and luxury stores but I find them in SM and Trinoma too. But oh, the escalators were high. Beautiful. Beautiful. The only difference perhaps, compared to other malls, is that Shang has less folks. Not crowded. Very spacious. From the third or fourth floor, I went down using the escalator and had a full view of the mall. Wow. It was really big and grand and luxurious… and I realized, wow, here I am, an ordinary folk – not so rich, not destitute, so-so average, but still somewhere up there hahaha… crazy…. but yeah, I am very blessed. I can afford to buy all these and those… eat here and there. And just be free. Others do not have this opportunity. I may not be as rich as the owner of Rustan’s, and whose heir was once my student (hi dude, you’re so humble dude, inspite of being the scion of this luxurious mall. Very good, keep it up), yeah, I may not as rich as my former students are, I feel free… very free and still privileged and have access to the best education at the best university in the country, and  just do what I want without bodyguards, without fans, no worries somebody might kidnap me or something hahahaha… coz I’m just an “ordinary guy” with an extra-ordinary Father, a King. Yeah, I may not be having the grandest luxuries of the world but I still am a co-heir of Jesus, hence, I am a prince too.

Time to leave. It was already 7pm. I wanted to ride an aircon bus but none… I still waited for almost 30 minutes, I even reached EDSA Central Mall? (can’t remember the mall’s name). This bus came, not aircon, but God told me, “Sakay ka na dyan.” So ok, sat beside the window as usual. But I realized, wow, Aaron be ready to absorb the pollution ha. And the noise. I planned to read while on the busride going home but how could I read when it was too noisy? So I just stared by the bus window… There, I realized why God made me ride this ordinary bus. To feel the discomfort that ordinary folks experience every single day – the konduktor, the mamang drayber who absorbs air pollutions plus all day driving….. near Munoz, I saw a makeshift abode under the bridge… And the contrast flashed on me: Shangri-la luxuries and the iskwater sa ilalim ng tulay…… All day malling and all day driving…. Best school and others can’t even attend a public school…. A life of relative comfort and a life of relative difficulty…… It so happened the book I bought is also about Social Inequality…

The second sentence in the first paragraph of the essay I wrote five years ago runs, “Pero matapos dumaan ang bus dito, makikita ko mula sa bintana ang mga batang gusgusin na namamalimos at ang batang nanay na nagpapasuso sa kanyang sanggol habang umiiyak ang isa pang anak sa tabi (at marahil walang padre de pamilya).

It was a day full of new experiences, new things to reflect on to become a better “me” and contribute something to close the gap in this society… I aspire to contribute to that elusive “change” in my country. No, it’s not elusive. We just have to act on it. Do someting to make it a reality. I will do my part as God compels me.

For God and my country.

-Aaron